Bulky promotion cost-to-serve analysis
Measured true profitability of bulk beverage promotions after delivery and route costs
Summary
Commercial teams knew headline sales for bulk beverage promotions but didn't account for delivery cost per tote, driver costs, or incremental route pressure. Compared baseline and promotion weeks for water and soda across warehouse facilities, modeling delivery costs, tote fill from bulky volume, and opportunity cost. Presented methodology and findings directly to client leadership with Q&A; built reusable guardrails for future promotions. Estimated $420K impact at largest site over seven days; $560K across two sites; approximately $1M network-scale exposure.
Context
Retail fulfilment / Commercial
What I built
Built a full-cost model of large promotions on bulky categories for online grocery. Compared baseline vs. promotion weeks across fulfilment centres for bottled water and soda, including delivery cost per tote, warehouse handling, and opportunity cost when bulky lines displaced profit from typical baskets. Results: ~$420K estimated profit impact at one centre over seven days, ~$560K across two centres, and ~$1M rounded network-scale exposure. Presented findings directly to client leadership with methodology, Q&A, and alignment across commercial and operations stakeholders. Outcome: leadership could approve promos on profit impact, not sales lift alone.
Impact
- ●Estimated $420K impact at the largest site (7-day bulky beverage window)
- ●Estimated $560K combined impact across two facilities versus baseline
- ●Approximately $1M network-scale exposure with reusable promotional guardrails
- ●Direct client presentation aligning commercial and operations stakeholders on promotion profitability